USDA Cattle on Feed 10/23



Cattle on Feed

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on
October 1, 2020. The inventory was 4 percent above October 1, 2019. This is
the highest October 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. The inventory
included 7.31 million steers and steer calves, up 6 percent from the previous
year. This group accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and
heifer calves accounted for 4.41 million head, down slightly from 2019.

Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.23 million head, 6 percent
above 2019. Net placements were
2.17 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing
less than 600 pounds were 445,000 head,
600-699 pounds were 360,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 500,000 head, 800-899
pounds were 517,000 head,
900-999 pounds were 300,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 105,000
head.

Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.85 million head,
6 percent above 2019.

Other disappearance totaled 58,000 head during September, 2 percent below
2019.

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: October 1, 2019 and 2020

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2019                     2020           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed September 1
                        10,982                   11,394                     104
Placed on feed during September
                         2,103                    2,227                     106
Fed cattle marketed during September
                         1,738                    1,846                     106
Other disappearance during September
                            59                       58                      98
On feed October 1
                        11,288                   11,717                     104

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: September 1, 2019 and 2020

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2019                     2020           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed August 1
                        11,112                   11,284                     102
Placed on feed during August
                         1,884                    2,057                     109
Fed cattle marketed during August
                         1,953                    1,892                      97
Other disappearance during August
                            61                       55                      90
On feed September 1
                        10,982                   11,394                     104

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: October 1,
2019 and 2020

                                                                  Percent of
Item
                   2019              2020     previous year        inventory

                             (1,000 head)                                   %
Class on feed October 1
  Steers and steer calves
                  6,868             7,312               106                62
  Heifers and heifer calves
                  4,420             4,405               100                38

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                                October 1, 2020

StateOctober 1, 2019 September 1, 2020                                Percent of
                                         Inventory  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ               253            264            257            102            97
CA               525            535            545            104           102
CO               990          1,040          1,110            112           107
ID               275            255            270             98           106
IA               640            610            610             95           100
KS             2,380          2,470          2,540            107           103
MN               105            110            105            100            95
NE             2,270          2,280          2,410            106           106
OK               315            310            315            100           102
SD               210            190            190             90           100
TX             2,790          2,850          2,870            103           101
WA               225            220            220             98           100

OtrSt            310            260            275             89           106

US            11,288         11,394         11,717            104           103

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United
States: 2019 and 2020

                                                          During September 2020
                             During
State September 2019    August 2020                                  Percent of
                                        Placements  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                16             15             16            100           107
CA                50             52             68            136           131
CO               240            180            245            102           136
ID                58             41             54             93           132
IA                82             75             72             88            96
KS               435            540            490            113            91
MN                22             12             19             86           158
NE               530            505            600            113           119
OK                46             58             62            135           107
SD                53             47             45             85            96
TX               465            440            450             97           102
WA                46             40             45             98           113

OtrSt             60             52             61            102           117

US             2,103          2,057          2,227            106           108

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots and Month 
States and United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                       During September 2019

State 
Under 600lbs 600-699lbs 700-799lbs 800-899lbs 900+lbs1/ 900-999lbs 1,000+lbs Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          30       25       50       70       65      (D)      (D)      240
KS          60       90      130      100       55      (D)      (D)      435
NE          50       60       95      150      175      (D)      (D)      530
TX         170      130      105       50       10      (D)      (D)      465

OtrSt      120       50       80      105       78      (D)      (D)      433

US         430      355      460      475      (X)      273      110    2,103

                                                          During August 2020

State 
Under 600lbs 600-699lbs 700-799lbs 800-899lbs 900+lbs1/ 900-999lbs 1,000+lbs Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          25       30       35       50       40      (D)      (D)      180
KS          60      100      170      150       60      (D)      (D)      540
NE          45       50      105      165      140      (D)      (D)      505
TX         180      110       90       50       10      (D)      (D)      440

OtrSt       95       45       70      107       75      (D)      (D)      392

US         405      335      470      522      (X)      230       95    2,057

                                                       During September 2020

State 
Under 600lbs 600-699lbs 700-799lbs 800-899lbs 900+lbs1/ 900-999lbs 1,000+lbs Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          30       30       55       65       65      (D)      (D)      245
KS          65       95      155      115       60      (D)      (D)      490
NE          55       60      115      180      190      (D)      (D)      600
TX         175      125       95       45       10      (D)      (D)      450

OtrSt      120       50       80      112       80      (D)      (D)      442

US         445      360      500      517      (X)      300      105    2,227

(D)  Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
(X)  Not applicable.
1/ The 900 pounds and greater weight group is the sum of 900-999 pounds and
1,000 pounds and greater weight groups.
Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United States:
2019 and 2020

                                                          During September 2020
                             During
State September 2019    August 2020                                  Percent of
                                        Marketings  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                19             19             22            116           116
CA                50             54             49             98            91
CO               175            155            170             97           110
ID                50             45             38             76            84
IA                70             83             70            100            84
KS               385            470            410            106            87
MN                16             21             23            144           110
NE               410            435            460            112           106
OK                44             52             56            127           108
SD                46             34             44             96           129
TX               390            430            415            106            97
WA                40             44             44            110           100

OtrSt             43             50             45            105            90

US             1,738          1,892          1,846            106            98

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                          During September 2020
                             During
State September 2019    August 2020          Other                   Percent of
                                     disappearance  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                 1              1              1            100           100
CA                 5              8              9            180           113
CO                 5              5              5            100           100
ID                 3              1              1             33           100
IA                 2              2              2            100           100
KS                10             10             10            100           100
MN                 1              1              1            100           100
NE                10             10             10            100           100
OK                 2              1              1             50           100
SD                 2              3              1             50            33
TX                15             10             15            100           150
WA                 1              1              1            100           100

OtrSt              2              2              1             50            50

US                59             55             58             98           105

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed by Class on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Quarter  States and
United States: 2019 and 2020

                  Steers and steer calves          Heifers and heifer calves

State      Oct 1,      Jul 1,                  Oct 1,      Jul 1,     Oct 1,
             2019                    2020        2019                   2020

                                                                 (1,000 Head)
AZ            248         268         252           5           5           5
CA            455         465         465          70          80          80
CO            520         560         645         470         460         465
ID            180         170         150          95         110         120
IA            440         465         460         200         165         150
KS          1,270       1,280       1,380       1,110       1,110       1,160
MN             90         105          90          15          20          15
NE          1,360       1,380       1,500         910         880         910
OK            175         160         175         140         155         140
SD            120         115         115          90          70          75
TX          1,690       1,750       1,780       1,100       1,170       1,090
WA            130         135         120          95          90         100

OtrSt         190         180         180         120          90          95

US          6,868       7,033       7,312       4,420       4,405       4,405

Cattle on Feed: Released October 23, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]

           mean90 percent     Difference between first and latest estimate
         square confidence
          error
                    level
Item                                                                Months

                           Average  Smallest   Largest Below latest Above latest

                        %                       (1,000)            (number)
On feed
            0.1       0.1         4         0        15         2         8

Placements
            0.3       0.5         3         0        15         6         3

Marketings
            0.2       0.4         1         0        15         1         1


Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage,
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were
reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the
previous month when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 11.7 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 4,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 15,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has
been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate
2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference 
between first and latest estimate
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         
:         :               :
                              :              :    level     
:-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         
:         :            Months
                              :              :              :         :         
:         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest 
: Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent         ------- 1,000 
-------            ----- number ----
                              :
On feed ......................:     0.1            0.1           4         0    
    15            2               8
                              :
Placements ...................:     0.3            0.5           3         0    
    15            6               3
                              :
Marketings ...................:     0.2            0.4           1         0    
    15            1               1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to
nass@usda.gov.

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632
   Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585
   Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448
   Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106

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