USDA Cattle on Feed 12/18



Cattle on Feed

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on
December 1, 2020. The inventory was slightly above December 1, 2019.

Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.91 million head, 9 percent
below 2019. Net placements were
1.85 million head. During November, placements of cattle and calves weighing
less than 600 pounds were 520,000 head,
600-699 pounds were 460,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 400,000 head, 800-899
pounds were 306,000 head,
900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 90,000
head.

Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.78 million head, 2 percent
below 2019.

Other disappearance totaled 61,000 head during November, 6 percent below
2019.

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: December 1, 2019 and 2020

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2019                     2020           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed November 1
                        11,816                   11,973                     101
Placed on feed during November
                         2,093                    1,906                      91
Fed cattle marketed during November
                         1,813                    1,782                      98
Other disappearance during November
                            65                       61                      94
On feed December 1
                        12,031                   12,036                     100

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: November 1, 2019 and 2020

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2019                     2020           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed October 1
                        11,288                   11,717                     104
Placed on feed during October
                         2,462                    2,192                      89
Fed cattle marketed during October
                         1,875                    1,873                     100
Other disappearance during October
                            59                       63                     107
On feed November 1
                        11,816                   11,973                     101

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                               December 1, 2020

State December 1, 2019 November 1, 2020                               Percent of
                                         Inventory  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ               256            258            256            100            99
CA               550            555            555            101           100
CO             1,100          1,120          1,130            103           101
ID               300            280            290             97           104
IA               690            620            610             88            98
KS             2,430          2,520          2,500            103            99
MN               140            125            125             89           100
NE             2,480          2,500          2,530            102           101
OK               325            320            325            100           102
SD               250            225            250            100           111
TX             2,930          2,910          2,900             99           100
WA               240            245            255            106           104

OtrSt            340            295            310             91           105

US            12,031         11,973         12,036            100           101

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United
States: 2019 and 2020

                                                           During November 2020
                             During
State  November 2019   October 2020                                  Percent of
                                        Placements  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                27             27             22             81            81
CA                64             66             58             91            88
CO               185            175            165             89            94
ID                56             53             50             89            94
IA               110            105             83             75            79
KS               415            430            415            100            97
MN                25             35             16             64            46
NE               520            560            460             88            82
OK                58             51             52             90           102
SD                75             84             79            105            94
TX               465            480            405             87            84
WA                42             61             45            107            74

OtrSt             51             65             56            110            86

US             2,093          2,192          1,906             91            87

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots and Month 
States and United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                        During November 2019

State 
Under 600 lbs 6-699 lbs 7-799 lbs 8-899 lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999 lbs 1,000+lbs Total

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          60       40       30       30       25      (D)      (D)      185
KS          60      105      125       80       45      (D)      (D)      415
NE         100      120      100       90      110      (D)      (D)      520
TX         200      120       85       45       15      (D)      (D)      465

OtrSt      200      115       83       65       45      (D)      (D)      508

US         620      500      423      310      (X)      130      110    2,093

                                                         During October 2020

State 
Under 600 lbs 6-699 lbs 7-799 lbs 8-899 lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999 lbs 1,000+lbs Total

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          35       30       35       40       35      (D)      (D)      175
KS          65       90      140       90       45      (D)      (D)      430
NE         120      125       90      110      115      (D)      (D)      560
TX         170      125      115       55       15      (D)      (D)      480

OtrSt      180      125       85       92       65      (D)      (D)      547

US         570      495      465      387      (X)      185       90    2,192

                                                        During November 2020

State 
Under 600 lbs 6-699 lbs 7-799 lbs 8-899 lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999 lbs 1,000+lbs Total

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          50       35       30       30       20      (D)      (D)      165
KS          60      100      125       85       45      (D)      (D)      415
NE          80      110       90       85       95      (D)      (D)      460
TX         150      115       80       45       15      (D)      (D)      405

OtrSt      180      100       75       61       45      (D)      (D)      461

US         520      460      400      306      (X)      130       90    1,906

(D)  Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
(X)  Not applicable.
1/ The 900 pounds and greater weight group is the sum of 900-999 pounds and
1,000 pounds and greater weight groups.
Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United States:
2019 and 2020

                                                           During November 2020
                             During
State  November 2019   October 2020                                  Percent of
                                        Marketings  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                26             25             23             88            92
CA                47             49             51            109           104
CO               150            160            150            100            94
ID                44             41             39             89            95
IA                76             92             91            120            99
KS               395            440            425            108            97
MN                14             14             15            107           107
NE               475            460            415             87            90
OK                57             45             46             81           102
SD                64             48             53             83           110
TX               390            420            400            103            95
WA                35             35             34             97            97

OtrSt             40             44             40            100            91

US             1,813          1,873          1,782             98            95

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2019 and 2020

                                                           During November 2020
                             During
State  November 2019   October 2020          Other                   Percent of
                                     disappearance  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                 1              1              1            100           100
CA                 7              7              7            100           100
CO                 5              5              5            100           100
ID                 2              2              1             50            50
IA                 4              3              2             50            67
KS                10             10             10            100           100
MN                 1              1              1            100           100
NE                15             10             15            100           150
OK                 1              1              1            100           100
SD                 1              1              1            100           100
TX                15             20             15            100            75
WA                 2              1              1             50           100

OtrSt              1              1              1            100           100

US                65             63             61             94            97

Cattle on Feed: Released December 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]

           mean90 percent     Difference between first and latest estimate
         square confidence
          error
                    level
Item                                                                Months

                            erage  Smallest   Largest Below latest Above latest

                        %                       (1,000)            (number)
On feed
            0.1       0.1         4         0        15         2         8

Placements
            0.3       0.5         3         0        15         6         3

Marketings
            0.2       0.4         1         0        15         1         1


Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage,
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were
reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the
previous month when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 12.0 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 4,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 15,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has
been above the latest estimate 8 times and has been below the latest estimate
2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference 
between first and latest estimate
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         
:         :               :
                              :              :    level     
:-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         
:         :            Months
                              :              :              :         :         
:         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest 
: Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent         ------- 1,000 
-------            ----- number ----
                              :
On feed ......................:     0.1            0.1           4         0    
    15            2               8
                              :
Placements ...................:     0.3            0.5           3         0    
    15            6               3
                              :
Marketings ...................:     0.2            0.4           1         0    
    15            1               1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact
for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to
nass@usda.gov.

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632
   Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585
   Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448
   Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106

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