USDA Cattle on Feed 11/19



Cattle on Feed

ISSN: 1948-9080

Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

United States Cattle on Feed Down Slightly

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for
feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on
November 1, 2021. The inventory was slightly below November 1, 2020.

Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.25 million head, 2 percent
above 2020. Net placements were 2.19 million head. During October, placements
of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 575,000 head,
600-699 pounds were 500,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 470,000 head,
800-899 pounds were 425,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 190,000 head, and
1,000 pounds and greater were 85,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.79 million head, 5 percent
below 2020.

Other disappearance totaled 59,000 head during October, 6 percent below 2020.

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: November 1, 2020 and 2021

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2020                     2021           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed October 1
                        11,717                   11,550                      99
Placed on feed during October
                         2,192                    2,245                     102
Fed cattle marketed during October
                         1,873                    1,788                      95
Other disappearance during October
                            63                       59                      94
On feed November 1
                        11,973                   11,948                     100

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots  United States: October 1, 2020 and 2021

                                                                     Percent of
Item                      2020                     2021           previous year

                                           (1,000 head)                        %
On feed September 1
                        11,394                   11,234                      99
Placed on feed during September
                         2,227                    2,163                      97
Fed cattle marketed during September
                         1,846                    1,789                      97
Other disappearance during September
                            58                       58                     100
On feed October 1
                        11,717                   11,550                      99

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle on Feed Inventory on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2020 and 2021

                                                               November 1, 2021

State November 1, 2020 October 1, 2021                                Percent of
                                         Inventory  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ               258            270            273            106           101
CA               555            540            545             98           101
CO             1,120          1,130          1,150            103           102
ID               280            305            310            111           102
IA               620            600            610             98           102
KS             2,520          2,530          2,510            100            99
MN               125             90            105             84           117
NE             2,500          2,380          2,560            102           108
OK               320            295            300             94           102
SD               225            200            230            102           115
TX             2,910          2,730          2,850             98           104
WA               245            200            205             84           103

OtrSt            295            280            300            102           107

US            11,973         11,550         11,948            100           103

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United
States: 2020 and 2021

                                                            During October 2021
                             During
State   October 2020 September 2021                                  Percent of
                                        Placements  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                27             21             24             89           114
CA                66             63             52             79            83
CO               175            220            185            106            84
ID                53             57             50             94            88
IA               105             80            116            110           145
KS               430            505            435            101            86
MN                35             19             29             83           153
NE               560            545            625            112           115
OK                51             68             49             96            72
SD                84             44             74             88           168
TX               480            450            510            106           113
WA                61             35             33             54            94

OtrSt             65             56             63             97           113

US             2,192          2,163          2,245            102           104

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Placed on Feed by Weight Group on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots and Month 
States and United States: 2020 and 2021

                                                         During October 2020

State Under 600lbs 6-699lbs 7-799lbs 8-899lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999lbs 1,000+lbs  Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          35       30       35       40       35      (D)      (D)      175
KS          65       90      140       90       45      (D)      (D)      430
NE         120      125       90      110      115      (D)      (D)      560
TX         170      125      115       55       15      (D)      (D)      480

OtrSt      180      125       85       92       65      (D)      (D)      547

US         570      495      465      387      (X)      185       90    2,192

                                                       During September 2021

State Under 600lbs 6-699lbs 7-799lbs 8-899lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999lbs 1,000+lbs  Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          30       25       50       60       55      (D)      (D)      220
KS          65      100      165      120       55      (D)      (D)      505
NE          55       55      100      160      175      (D)      (D)      545
TX         165      130      100       45       10      (D)      (D)      450

OtrSt      120       50       80      113       80      (D)      (D)      443

US         435      360      495      498      (X)      275      100    2,163

                                                         During October 2021

State Under 600lbs 6-699lbs 7-799lbs 8-899lbs 900+lbs 1/ 9-999lbs 1,000+lbs  Ttl

                                                                 (1,000 head)
CO          35       35       35       45       35      (D)      (D)      185
KS          65       95      135       95       45      (D)      (D)      435
NE         145      130       95      130      125      (D)      (D)      625
TX         170      130      125       70       15      (D)      (D)      510

OtrSt      160      110       80       85       55      (D)      (D)      490

US         575      500      470      425      (X)      190       85    2,245

(D)  Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
(X)  Not applicable.
1/ The 900 pounds and greater weight group is the sum of 9-999 pounds and
1,000 pounds and greater weight groups.
Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Marketed on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and United States:
2020 and 2021

                                                            During October 2021
                             During
State   October 2020 September 2021                                  Percent of
                                        Marketings  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                25             19             20             80           105
CA                49             45             40             82            89
CO               160            165            160            100            97
ID                41             41             44            107           107
IA                92             67            104            113           155
KS               440            435            445            101           102
MN                14             18             13             93            72
NE               460            435            435             95           100
OK                45             47             43             96            91
SD                48             43             41             85            95
TX               420            405            375             89            93
WA                35             29             27             77            93

OtrSt             44             40             41             93           103

US             1,873          1,789          1,788             95           100

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Cattle Other Disappearance on 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots by Month  States and
United States: 2020 and 2021

                                                            During October 2021
                             During
State   October 2020 September 2021          Other                   Percent of
                                     disappearance  previous yearprevious month

                                      (1,000 head)                             %
AZ                 1              1              1            100           100
CA                 7              8              7            100            88
CO                 5              5              5            100           100
ID                 2              1              1             50           100
IA                 3              3              2             67            67
KS                10             10             10            100           100
MN                 1              1              1            100           100
NE                10             10             10            100           100
OK                 1              1              1            100           100
SD                 1              1              3            300           300
TX                20             15             15             75           100
WA                 1              1              1            100           100

OtrSt              1              1              2            200           200

US                63             58             59             94           102

Cattle on Feed: Released November 19, 2021, by the National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States
Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]

           mean90 percent     Difference between first and latest estimate
         square confidence
          error
                    level
Item                                                                Months

                          Average  Smallest   Largest Below latest Above latest

                        %                       (1,000)            (number)
On feed
              0       0.1         1         0        15         2         1

Placements
            0.2       0.4         2         0        15         6         3

Marketings
            0.2       0.4         1         0        15         4         2


Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates

Cattle on feed are steers and heifers being fed a ration of grain, silage,
hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to
produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being
"backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another
feedlot.

Placements are steers and heifers put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will
produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the
slaughter market.

Marketings are steers and heifers shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter
market.

Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture,
and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the United
States with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for
cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 16
States are surveyed. The 16 States account for approximately 98 percent of
the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.
Individual State estimates are published monthly for 12 of the 16 States.
Data collected from the remaining 4 States are used to establish the "Other
States" estimates. These 4 States include Illinois, New Mexico, Oregon, and
Wyoming. The "Other States" category represents all cattle on feed with a
capacity of 1,000 or more head for the rest of the United States.

Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the
Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis
submitted by Regional Field Offices. Regional and State survey data were
reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the
previous month when establishing the current estimates.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to
month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision
in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all
monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and
annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions.
The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand
data, and any other data that may have been received after the original
estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census
of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and
estimates become final.

Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every
State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors
such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and
processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly.
They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report,
the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table on the
following page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based
on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and
latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.0 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 11.9 million head by more than 0.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent.

The table on the following page shows a 24 month record of the range of
differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using
estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate
and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 1,000 head,
ranging from 0 to 15,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has
been above the latest estimate 1 time and has been below the latest estimate
2 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to
understate or overstate final inventory.

Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :  Root mean   :  90 percent  :        Difference 
between first and latest estimate
                              : square error :  confidence  :         :         
:         :               :
                              :              :    level     
:-------------------------------------------------------------
             Item             :              :              :         :         
:         :            Months
                              :              :              :         :         
:         :-------------------------------
                              :              :              : Average :Smallest 
: Largest : Below latest  : Above latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
                              :   percent        percent         ------- 1,000 
-------            ----- number ----
                              :
On feed ......................:     0.0            0.1           1         0    
    15            2               1
                              :
Placements ...................:     0.2            0.4           2         0    
    15            6               3
                              :
Marketings ...................:     0.2            0.4           1         0    
    15            4               2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to nass@usda.gov.

Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069

Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424
   Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632
   Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040
   Anthony Fischer - Hogs and Pigs .............. (202) 720-3106
   Logan Hartley-Sanguinett - Sheep and Goats ... (202) 690-3236
   Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
   Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448

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