DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/08 10:56

DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/08 10:56

   Corn Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 
to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4 
to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market 
is weaker with the DOW down 125 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 110 points 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 
1.50. Livestock trade is mostly higher with cattle. Precious metals are mixed 
with gold $14.00 higher.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 7 to 8 cents lower overnight with flat to slightly firmer 
spread action as trade looks to position for the WASDE report Friday as well as 
digest the extent of weekend rains and the weather ahead. Outside markets have 
the dollar fading a little off the highs and energies mixed near recent lows 
for crude and related products. Short-term forecasts show drier weather for 
most in the near term with warmer-than-normal temperatures for the center and 
western parts of the Corn Belt. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by 
driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures at six-month lows 
to crimp blending margins. Basis will be watched to see how much further 
strength fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starting in the 
South. USDA's weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show steady to 
slightly lower conditions with maturity getting closer to the five-year 
average. On the September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored 
two weeks ago with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with 
trade holding back above the 20-day moving average at $5.97; the upper 
Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.23. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 7 to 12 cents lower overnight with two-sided trade so 
far as we wait to see how the weather evolves in pod-fill season, along with 
waiting to see if further demand can be confirmed from last week's rally after 
the first confirmations of Chinese buying last week. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 
lower and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. Biodiesel margins remain positive but 
narrowing in recent days. South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping 
with their advantage to persist, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the 
start of pod-fill season with warmer and drier weather for much of the belt 
this week after the mixed weekend rains. Basis is fading a bit at processors 
and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south draws closer. On the 
September soybean chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $13.99, which 
we bounced off last week, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $14.95 as the next 
round up.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 9 to 14 cents lower overnight with early gains fading as 
trade works back to the lower end of the range to see where commercial buying 
emerges and what kind of pace Black Sea shipping maintains short term. Plains 
weather looks warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built 
before planting time. Harvest is wrapped up, except for the north growing 
areas, while spring wheat sees heat with harvest about to start. Steady weekly 
conditions are expected on the Crop Progress report with maturity still well 
behind normal. The dollar remains near the highs, which is likely to limit 
exports. The KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day moving average 
above the market at $8.57, which we faded from again overnight, with the lower 
Bollinger band at $8.22 the next round down.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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